Mike Furley
08-30-2009, 03:06 PM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Some things to note about Rasmussen's polling:
He polls only likely voters. Other polling outfits have polls of registered voters, others have all adults (Gallup).
He offers four choices - Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove, Strongly Disapprove.
His poll is a three day rolling average.
Why, in my opinion, it's ominous:
Given the parameters of the way he polls, it is a very good snapshot of America in how it would vote if an election were held today. There are no choices for undecided, it's over a three day period so individual daily events don't strongly affect the outcome, and it only polls those Americans likely to go vote.
The overall approval numbers are 47% approve and 52% disappove.
The number of likely voters who strongly disapprove is at 42%. This means those likely voters strongly disapproving are edging closer to the total number of people approve (both somewhat and strongly).
Of those that strongly approve, it amounts to only 32%. This means there is a negative 10 point spread among those who have strong opinions. Obama had a positive spread in this category from inauguration day up to around July 4th when it dipped into the negative territory. That trend has never reversed course.
Additionally, the number of people who now have strong opinions has increased so that they now make up 74% of those polled. Edmund Wright calls this the "Give-a-damn Index".
You can read his thoughts here: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/08/the_giveadamn_index_reaches_ne.html
Wright's analysis is that for a long time, people have been against Obama's agenda when polled on specific issues, but that people had differed in their personal opinion of Obama. Now Obama is actually being tied to his specific issues, his polling numbers are dropping and will eventually match the polling consistent with how people feel about the issues.
One of the big frustrations with conservatives is that during the campaign, the country largely wasn't interested in closely examining Obama and his policy proposals. In their view, Obama was largely allowed to run a broad themed "Hope & Change" platform, as well as havning the fluff pieces written celebrating his historic canidacy.
What this polling shows is that the bloom is withering off the Obama rose. He is no longer the empty canvas that people could attribute their hopes and dreams to. He is being seen more and more as the committed hard-left idealogue that he truly is.
I think the Obama administration knows this too, which is why they moved at breakneck speed to muscle through the stimulus bill, budget omnibus bill, cap & trade, and tried to do health care too. The goal was to get as much done as possible before people could wake up.
As Republicans don't have enough members to stop his agenda, I hope the remaining members of America who are still asleep begin to wake up soon. That is the only hope to stop this madness before the 2010 midterm elections.
Some things to note about Rasmussen's polling:
He polls only likely voters. Other polling outfits have polls of registered voters, others have all adults (Gallup).
He offers four choices - Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove, Strongly Disapprove.
His poll is a three day rolling average.
Why, in my opinion, it's ominous:
Given the parameters of the way he polls, it is a very good snapshot of America in how it would vote if an election were held today. There are no choices for undecided, it's over a three day period so individual daily events don't strongly affect the outcome, and it only polls those Americans likely to go vote.
The overall approval numbers are 47% approve and 52% disappove.
The number of likely voters who strongly disapprove is at 42%. This means those likely voters strongly disapproving are edging closer to the total number of people approve (both somewhat and strongly).
Of those that strongly approve, it amounts to only 32%. This means there is a negative 10 point spread among those who have strong opinions. Obama had a positive spread in this category from inauguration day up to around July 4th when it dipped into the negative territory. That trend has never reversed course.
Additionally, the number of people who now have strong opinions has increased so that they now make up 74% of those polled. Edmund Wright calls this the "Give-a-damn Index".
You can read his thoughts here: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/08/the_giveadamn_index_reaches_ne.html
Wright's analysis is that for a long time, people have been against Obama's agenda when polled on specific issues, but that people had differed in their personal opinion of Obama. Now Obama is actually being tied to his specific issues, his polling numbers are dropping and will eventually match the polling consistent with how people feel about the issues.
One of the big frustrations with conservatives is that during the campaign, the country largely wasn't interested in closely examining Obama and his policy proposals. In their view, Obama was largely allowed to run a broad themed "Hope & Change" platform, as well as havning the fluff pieces written celebrating his historic canidacy.
What this polling shows is that the bloom is withering off the Obama rose. He is no longer the empty canvas that people could attribute their hopes and dreams to. He is being seen more and more as the committed hard-left idealogue that he truly is.
I think the Obama administration knows this too, which is why they moved at breakneck speed to muscle through the stimulus bill, budget omnibus bill, cap & trade, and tried to do health care too. The goal was to get as much done as possible before people could wake up.
As Republicans don't have enough members to stop his agenda, I hope the remaining members of America who are still asleep begin to wake up soon. That is the only hope to stop this madness before the 2010 midterm elections.