Miami's Playoff Outlook

[MgoMatt]

I've never been much of a fan on the NFL, feeling too tied to the college game, but when Miami picked Jake Long and Chad Henne as their first two picks, it caught my attention, and I've been following them since.

Now, the team that went 1-15 last season has a chance to make it to the playoffs this year. Maybe there's still hope for the Lions' future :rolleyes:

Here's the current situation:
Miami won today, and both the NY Jets and New England lost, prompting me to write this stuff.

Miami's final four games are Buffalo (6-6), San Francisco (4-8), Kansas City (2-10), and NY Jets (8-4).

AFC EAST
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The AFC East is the division most up for grabs right now. The standings are currently:
(Overall) [Division] {Common} <Conference>

NY Jets (8-4) [3-1] {3-3} <6-4>
New England (7-5) [3-2] {4-1} <5-5>
Miami (7-5) [2-2] {5-1} <5-4>
Buffalo (6-6) [0-3] {5-2} <4-4>

The common opponents for the division are

AFC West
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San Diego
Oakland
Kansas City
Denver

NFC West
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Arizona
San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis

The games to be played:

NY Jets play San Francisco (4-8), Buffalo (6-6), Seattle (2-10), Miami (7-5)
New England plays Seattle (2-10), Oakland (3-9), Arizona (7-5), Buffalo (6-6)
Buffalo plays Miami (7-5), NY Jets (8-4), Denver (7-5), New England (7-5)

Miami has split with New England, won their first against Buffalo, and lost first against NY Jets.

Let's examine the scenario where Miami wins out
This would put Miami at (11-5) [4-2] {7-1} <8-4>, with a split against the Jets.
In the worst case:
NY Jets wins out (except against Miami) and becomes (11-5) [4-2] {5-3} <7-5>
New England wins out and becomes (11-5) [4-2] {7-1} <7-5>

Break out the tie breaking rules!!

1. Head-to-head (still a tie)
2. Best won-lost percentage in division games. (still a tie)
3. Best won-lost percentage in common games. (TIED WITH New England, Jets are OUT!)
4. Best won-lost percentage in conference games. (MIAMI WINS!!!!!!)

So then, Miami controls its own destiny!

If Miami does not win its final 4 games, obviously the most crucial one is the game against the Jets at the end of the season. A split there could keep Miami in the tie-breaking race towards the AFC East. What has helped Miami thus far is that 2 of their losses have come against the two AFC teams that ended up 4th in their division last year. Since no other AFC East team played them, the losses don't factor into tie-breaking.

WILD CARD
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Indianapolis (8-4) is more or less guaranteed one of the two Wild Card spots. Their remaining games are Cincinnati (1-10-1), Detroit (0-12), Jacksonville (4-7), and Tennessee (11-1).

Baltimore (8-4) is currently the furthest along for the other Wild Card spot, but their upcoming schedule is tougher. They play Washington (7-5), Pittsburgh (9-3), Dallas (8-4), and Jacksonville (4-7). If they lose any of their final 4 games, it opens up the spot to other AFC teams.

New England (7-5)
Miami (7-5)
Buffalo (6-6)

Since all three teams still going for the Wild Card spot are in the AFC East, the discussion above is still relevant.

[nc wolverine]

i like worst to first. it would be sweeter if Henne was leading the fish

i think i stole this from an espn analyst.... but it will come down to the final game which has the fish playing the jets. If miami can pull that one out i think they get into the play offs.... just dont slip against thigpen and the chiefs.

[MgoMatt]

A pretty good day for Miami. The Patriots ALMOST lost, which could have made the second straight week where Miami had the only win in the division.

Now we have a 3 way tie for 1st. The final game with the Jets is going to be HUGE!