Had ANOTHER Interesting Conversation...

[Sten Carlson]

...With a bigwig UT backer, who knows Mack Brown well, football well, and more importantly, is INTIMATELY familiar with the BUSINESS OF ELITE COLLEGE FOOTBALL.

Once again, our conversation took place on the golf course. We got to talking, and I told him that I was a Michigan Man, and he came right out and said, "I really think RR is going to be successful in a few years..."

To which I replied, "if he's not fired first..."

I think he thought I was anti-RR, and he retorted right back with a firm tone, "let me tell you something...College football is business, BIG BUSINESS, especially at Michigan, like it is a Texas...and in business you don't hire a new vice president to head a department, buy out his existing contract from his previous employer, renovate the all the facilities, including the stadium, only to fire him after three seasons. What are you going to do then? Huh? I'll tell you what you're going to do...you're going to have pay off the rest of his contract, then hire another new coach, and buy out the existing term of HIS CONTRACT from the school where he is coaching now...I know Michigan has more money than God, but that just ain't good business...and it's a BUSINESS first and foremost. What if the next guy that comes in can't get it done either, you going to fire him, pay off his contract and buy out another swinging dick coach's contract to get him to come to Ann Arbor?!? If not, you're going to have to settle for some no name guy, and that is going to go over like a fart in church. Nope, this new AD from Dominoes [I was surprised that he knew that] ain't no dummy, and he ain't gonna take that chance, spend all that money, and be left looking like the king jackass. Michigan has spent about all the money they're going to spend right now...they got themselves a great coach, and now their facilities are back in shape, it's just a matter of time before they're right back on top..."

Needless to say, I was a bit shocked, but then I know this guy well and know that he wasn't just talking shit. I expressed my agreement, but to be honest, I was all ready with my "bare cup board argument" thinking I was going to have to defend RR, so as shocking as it might sound, I was at a bit of a loss for words.

We then started talking about Texas football, Gilbert (their Soph. QB) and going back to the proset offense. He seemed to think that Texas might have a bit of down year (for them) this season, and that people might be a bit disappointed.

"We're really young in places, got some good guys coming back, but we just aren't sure how the offensive line is going to perform...Mack wants to run power more, and they got some good young horses, but they're all unproven so far...who knows, could be a great year, but I'll bet it's not what people have come to expect..."

I wanted to tell him that Texas only really plays one top opponent a year in OU, and that is in an neutral site in the Cotton Bowl, and that I think the Aggies are going to beat the Horns, but I kept my mouth shut.

[bighousemike84]

Its good to hear that someone with absolutely no affiliation with Michigan football(good or bad) believes the same thing that I do. I completely agree that Rodriguez is going to be successful, either this year or next year. I have felt since the spring that this team is on the verge of something really good and I would absolutely hate to see Rodriguez fired after this season only to see the team that he built succeed without him. Although I dont think that will happen because I dont think that Brandon is that stupid.

[Mike Furley]

I agree with the UT guy to an extent. Where I deviate from is the new AD, Brandon, is not beholden to Coach Rodriguez because he didn't hire him. Obviously, every AD is his/her own person so each will make the decision that sits best with him/her, but it seems, having followed college sports for a number of years, that AD's like to pick their own people - just like in business, the new vice president (if he/she is good) will take a year to evaluate the holdovers, and then clean house after figuring out who he/she can work with long term. If Coach Rodriguez is successful this year, he can extend his lifeline at UM beyond this season - if he's not successful then it comes down to whether Brandon has the confidence in Coach Rodriguez in whether they can work together in the future in line with where Brandon wants to take the Athletic Department.

[Sten Carlson]

Mike,

thanks for chiming in -- yours is the lone sane voice from OSU supporters. I think you're right about ADs wanting their own people, but Brandon most likely has a mandate from MSC to stop the bleeding of cash, let the new coach do his thing, see a full class to maturity, and stay the course. As the guy I quoted was saying, Michigan has spent enormous amounts of money on the program of late, and there is absolutely no guarantee that spending EVEN MORE is going to do anything but create more difficulties. Investments in personnel and infrastructure many times take time to bear fruit -- Michigan has NEVER been an insant gratification institution. Some problems (like depth and experience) CANNOT be solved by throwing money at them, and may well get worse unless continuity and consistency aren't maintained. This isn't the NFL where you can trade for a veteran player or two to shore up the squad!

[bighousemike84]

I agree with the UT guy to an extent. Where I deviate from is the new AD, Brandon, is not beholden to Coach Rodriguez because he didn't hire him. Obviously, every AD is his/her own person so each will make the decision that sits best with him/her, but it seems, having followed college sports for a number of years, that AD's like to pick their own people - just like in business, the new vice president (if he/she is good) will take a year to evaluate the holdovers, and then clean house after figuring out who he/she can work with long term. If Coach Rodriguez is successful this year, he can extend his lifeline at UM beyond this season - if he's not successful then it comes down to whether Brandon has the confidence in Coach Rodriguez in whether they can work together in the future in line with where Brandon wants to take the Athletic Department.

I dont necessarily disagree with your thought process here but in regards to Michigan I do think you are wrong.

First of all you assume that Brandon has a plan to move the football program in a different direction then it is already headed. Second, you assume that Brandon is somehow unhappy with the coaching ability of Rich Rodriguez. And thrid, you assume that, given a bad season, Rodriguez will be gone for sure.
That 3rd one is the one that bugs me the most. As far as I can see the most logical choice for Michigan, regardless of the success or lack thereof, is to retain Rodriguez through the remainder of his contract. Both for reasons of continuity and for financial reasons. Now I for one dont believe that Rodriguez and this football team will fail this season but that has yet to be determined. Regardless, RR is the coach and will remain the coach for at least 2 more seasons.

[Wolvrin704]

I also agree with Furley to a point.....but there are mitigating facts in this case.

1. UM has invested far too much money in RR to start all over.
2. Brandon was part of the search committee that hired RR.
3. Even if RR is not his man, its not like he's a long time holdover from the previous AD. He's only been there 2 years.
4. I'm sure MSC has some say in this as well and I'm not sure she would agree with it.

[Mike Furley]

I dont necessarily disagree with your thought process here but in regards to Michigan I do think you are wrong.

First of all you assume that Brandon has a plan to move the football program in a different direction then it is already headed. Second, you assume that Brandon is somehow unhappy with the coaching ability of Rich Rodriguez. And thrid, you assume that, given a bad season, Rodriguez will be gone for sure.
That 3rd one is the one that bugs me the most. As far as I can see the most logical choice for Michigan, regardless of the success or lack thereof, is to retain Rodriguez through the remainder of his contract. Both for reasons of continuity and for financial reasons. Now I for one dont believe that Rodriguez and this football team will fail this season but that has yet to be determined. Regardless, RR is the coach and will remain the coach for at least 2 more seasons.


Not to quibble too much, but I didn't think I made any of the assumptions you claim I was making.

Assumption 1 - that Brandon has a plan to move the football program in different direction than it is already headed.
Assumption 2 - that Brandon is somehow unhappy with the coaching ability of Rich Rodriguez
Assumption 3 - that given a bad season, RR will be gone for sure.

The only assumption I thought I made was that if Coach Rodriguez had a successful year, he would likey get a longer lifeline because you don't normally see successful coaches fired - you see unsuccessful ones fired.

Now, for the sake of this discussion, let's say UM has another disappointing season this year. Are the chances of Coach Rodriguez staying on for another season enhanced or diminished by having the boss who hired him quit and he now having a new boss? I think on average, chances for a head coach to stay on are diminished under a new boss. Why? because the new boss wants to work with the people of their own choosing.

As for the three assumptions you claim I make, here are my responses on point:

1. I assume Brandon wants the program to be on a successful trajectory. I assume that's the trajectory Coach Rodriguez wants too.
2. I make no assumption as to whether Brandon is happy with Coach Rodriguez coaching ability. I do assume that he is unhappy with the negative press aswell as unhappy with the lack of success - neither of which is a reflection on Coach Rodriguez's coaching ability.
3. I would not be surprised if after a bad season, Rodriguez was terminated for the reasons I already laid out, but I specifically said that a good manager waits a year and then cleans house, keeping only those people who he feels he can work with. If he feels he can work with Coach Rodriguez, he might very well keep him after another poor season.

[bighousemike84]

Are the chances of Coach Rodriguez staying on for another season enhanced or diminished by having the boss who hired him quit and he now having a new boss?

The chances are neither enhanced or diminished. David Brandon is not going to make any hasty decisions regarding the direction of the football program. I think that the only way Rodriguez gets fired after this season is if the team finishes with a worse than 3-9 record. I really believe that Brandon is confident with his coach, even though he didnt hire him, and I think he is not going to let the emotions of an angry fanbase sway his decision making one way or the other.

[Mich97c]

The chances are neither enhanced or diminished. David Brandon is not going to make any hasty decisions regarding the direction of the football program. I think that the only way Rodriguez gets fired after this season is if the team finishes with a worse than 3-9 record. I really believe that Brandon is confident with his coach, even though he didnt hire him, and I think he is not going to let the emotions of an angry fanbase sway his decision making one way or the other.

You really think Brandon will keep RR if we finish 4-8 or 5-7? Sorry, I disagree. In regards to money, we do get to keep the improved facilities and the stadium upgrades were planned way before he got here. I believe it was paid for through private donoations and from what I've read Brandon wants to upgrade the TV screens. If he's going back to the well for more money he's going to have to keep them happy. So we're really only the hook for part of the WV buyout and any money we owe if we fire him. And we may have an out with that. The NCAA doesn't let us know if they accept our self imposed penalities until mid Oct. and I can see that getting pushed back with what's happening with the agent thing. So if the penalities are worse we might be able to say breach of contract and get out of paying. On the new coach front, why do we need to buyout anyone? OSU didn't have to buyout youngstown did they? Was Mack Brown a big name before he got to UT (I really don't remember)?

Of course these questions go away with a good season - Go Blue!

[amazinblue]

I don't know what Brandon is thinking - I'm not in his inner circle. So, this is my view - and my view only.

Brandon was part of the search committee. Brandon played under Bo and since Brandon was on the D side of the ball probably saw a lot of Dennis Brown - Michigan's Assistant Coach / DC. Dennis Brown, like Don Nehlen were part of Bo's staff in the late 70's. Brandon played under Brown - and, oh my - what a surprise, so did Rich Rodriguez. And - not only did RR play D while Brown was the DC. After graduating, RR was a student assistant while Brown was DC at WVU.

I believe these men have common threads in their background, and a common / consistent approach to football. Their approach probably isn't that different from what Bo would advocate and endorse. Strong, physical, fast teams - on both sides of the ball.

I am rooting for the Maize & Blue every game this year. I think we're either turning the corner, or it's just in our rear view mirror. The team is very close and focused - and, I sincerely hope that RR is given the chance to show what he can do with a full roster of his players.

[bighousemike84]

You really think Brandon will keep RR if we finish 4-8 or 5-7?

Yes. Its basically that simple.

[Wolvrin704]

I agree with Mike. IMO, I've been doing a lot of reading about UM and Brandon this summer and I just don't see him firing RR for a certain amount of losses, unless its close to or at double digits.
There is just too much common interest between these men in goals and how to achieve them. Some of the luster from RR has been lost due to his record and the practice-gate. But other than that the feeling I get is that Brandon has faith in what RR is doing and will alow him the time to accomplish it.

[Sten Carlson]

Brandon was on the search committee that chose to hire RR -- what could be indicative of RR being "Brandon's Guy"? I think this point is the strongest indicator that Brandon is going to stick with RR through the end of his contract, and/or at least until he's has a chance to see a full recruiting class to maturity. For the financial reasons that I discussed previously, and for this reason, I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that we'll see any more changes to the program regardless of immediate success. The idea that Michigan can hire and fire it's way to success, after having the same basic regime in power for over 40 years is asinine. Michigan needs to maintain the status quo, allow the program and the players within it to develop and mature, and it needs to create an atmosphere of normalcy and calm, not constant upheaval and change. If changes are continually in the works, it is going to directly effect recruiting, which in turn directly effects the growth and development of the program as a whole. Brandon knows this well, and I am certain that he has expressed his commitment to RR personally, to the current players, and to potential incoming players and their parents who want to be assured to not have to go through a regime change while at Michigan. I think it is only people OUTSIDE the program that are implying the "Hot Seat" for RR.

[blue in pennsylvania]

Brandon was on the search committee that chose to hire RR -- what could be indicative of RR being "Brandon's Guy"? I think this point is the strongest indicator that Brandon is going to stick with RR through the end of his contract, and/or at least until he's has a chance to see a full recruiting class to maturity. For the financial reasons that I discussed previously, and for this reason, I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that we'll see any more changes to the program regardless of immediate success. The idea that Michigan can hire and fire it's way to success, after having the same basic regime in power for over 40 years is asinine. Michigan needs to maintain the status quo, allow the program and the players within it to develop and mature, and it needs to create an atmosphere of normalcy and calm, not constant upheaval and change. If changes are continually in the works, it is going to directly effect recruiting, which in turn directly effects the growth and development of the program as a whole. Brandon knows this well, and I am certain that he has expressed his commitment to RR personally, to the current players, and to potential incoming players and their parents who want to be assured to not have to go through a regime change while at Michigan. I think it is only people OUTSIDE the program that are implying the "Hot Seat" for RR.That was very insightfull and I would add that the fans should be patient as well. Dont overreact and call for the coaches head if we lose a game or two early. We all should show some patience and restraint when it comes to this team because of the inexperience. Things will get better.

[amazinblue]

... Dont overreact and call for the coaches head if we lose a game or two early...

Blue in Pa,

I agree.

All I can think of is the numerous seasons where we lost a game in September - consistently. And, how many years in a row did we lose our road opener?

I am hopeful that those days are behind us.

[Wolvrin704]

Blue in Pa,

I agree.

All I can think of is the numerous seasons where we lost a game in September - consistently. And, how many years in a row did we lose our road opener?

I am hopeful that those days are behind us.

Just had to look it up.

1990- 1 loss
1991- 1 loss
1992- 1 tie
1993- 1 loss
1994- 1 loss
1995- 0 losses
1996- 0 losses
1997- 0 losses
1998- 2 losses
1999- 0 losses
2000- 1 loss
2001- 1 loss
2002- 1 loss
2003- 1 loss
2004- 1 loss
2005- 2 losses
2006- 0 losses
2007- 2 losses
2008- 2 losses
2009- 0 losses

This is just losses in September, didn't look at road opener losses. As you can see RR has been just as succesful as Bo, Moeller and Carr in the month of September. Unfortunately he has not been so in B10 but that'll change. So early season losses are nothing new to the UM program, is what has aggravated us for years.

[bighousemike84]

Brandon was on the search committee that chose to hire RR -- what could be indicative of RR being "Brandon's Guy"? I think this point is the strongest indicator that Brandon is going to stick with RR through the end of his contract, and/or at least until he's has a chance to see a full recruiting class to maturity. For the financial reasons that I discussed previously, and for this reason, I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that we'll see any more changes to the program regardless of immediate success. The idea that Michigan can hire and fire it's way to success, after having the same basic regime in power for over 40 years is asinine. Michigan needs to maintain the status quo, allow the program and the players within it to develop and mature, and it needs to create an atmosphere of normalcy and calm, not constant upheaval and change. If changes are continually in the works, it is going to directly effect recruiting, which in turn directly effects the growth and development of the program as a whole. Brandon knows this well, and I am certain that he has expressed his commitment to RR personally, to the current players, and to potential incoming players and their parents who want to be assured to not have to go through a regime change while at Michigan. I think it is only people OUTSIDE the program that are implying the "Hot Seat" for RR.

Exactly! Just look at Notre Dame as the perfect example of a school who thinks that money will solve all problems. They have hired and fired 3 coaches in the last 10 years and all that indecision has brought them closer to the bottom of the barrel rather than being the cream of the crop. Notre Dame has been so determined to win at any cost that the athletic department made hasty and ill advised decisions that did not pay off. Firing Ty Willingham the way that they did was wrong on so many levels but then I suppose they got what was coming to them by hiring cheesburger in his place. Then to make matters worse they decided to give Chuck an extension, this after a terrible season!

For Michigan to succeed it must remain strong in the face of adversity. Now that doesnt mean that they should retain Rodriguez no matter what the outcome, at some point he must be held accountable, but you also cant be so hasty as to fire a head coach after only his third season. This is something that Brandon understands fully, this is something that Bo would have agreed with as well(at least in my opinion).

[bluefan]

That wasn't a terrible season when they gave him the extension. I believe he beat UM and went to a BCS bowl. Of course, uos knocked the crap outof them in that BCS bowl.

[NCBLUE]

I see both side of the coin on this one.

DB is smart enough to realize that quick fix coaching changes rarely work and may set Michigan's football program back even further. He is strong enough to stand up to media scrutiny of where the program is currently sitauted. The program is in uncharted waters (at least in my life time).

RR tookover a program thin on talent but even then the product/teams he has put on the field have under performed (even with lowered expectations) I applaud Martin for the hire, still think RR deserves 4 years but the clock is ticking.

It will be interesting to see what DB does.

[amazinblue]

... still think RR deserves 4 years but the clock is ticking...

NCBLUE,

I agree that four years is the absolute minimum. I think this season the team will improve - how much, IMO, is hard to say because this team is still very young. I believe that 2011 will be the year to see what RR can do, since the entire playbook should be instilled with a QB that is comfortable with the scheme, system, options, experience, and understanding of the decision making process. My hope is that the game will slow down for the QB's - and return teams this season.